Canada’s population ticks down in Q1

Federal efforts to curb immigration are continuing to weigh on Canada’s population, which declined by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to initial estimates from Statistics Canada — a shift that reframes recent weak economic data.

The population was estimated at 41.4 million in the first quarter, a decline of 55,025 from the start of the year.

In a research note, National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF) said the declining population should help calm concerns about a “technical recession” since per capita GDP growth remained positive in the first quarter and is set to look even better in the second quarter data.

Additionally, the lower population puts a different shine on weak hiring numbers, NBF said, as flat employment numbers in a smaller population suggests that “job market slack has stopped accumulating.”

A declining population is also disinflationary, it noted, with housing costs likely to decline amid weaker demand. As core inflation eases, “the odds of a quick pivot to tighter monetary policy are low,” it said.

The demographic decline was led by a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs), which fell by 117,879 people in the quarter, Statistics Canada reported.

At the same time, the number of permanent immigrants fell by 20.2%, compared with the first quarter of 2025, which Statistics Canada said is in line with the latest government targets.

The number of deaths also outpaced births in the quarter, resulting in negative “natural” population growth (-155).

The federal statistical agency noted that it expects larger-than-usual revisions to NPR numbers when the first quarter numbers are updated in September, “given the rapidly evolving context and shifting international migration policies.”

Among other things, it said the number of NPR permit extensions has increased in recent months, and the time required to process these permits has increased.

James Langton

James is a senior reporter for Advisor.ca and its sister publication, Investment Executive. He has been reporting on regulation, securities law, industry news and more since 1994.