RBC CEO downplays tensions, confident Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade will last

RBC’s chief executive says trade talks with the United States are part of a normal process and that ultimately, the CUSMA agreement is too important to Canada, Mexico and the U.S. for any of them to walk away.

Speaking at an event hosted by Bloomberg on Tuesday, CEO Dave McKay played down suggestions the relationship between the U.S. and Canada is increasingly fraught at a time when the bank has been expanding south of the border.

He says trade between the two countries remains strong and largely balanced, even as Canada continues to diversify its trade relationships with other countries outside of North America. 

“We want to maintain our $1.3-trillion relationship with the United States and grow that at the same time,” he said of diversified trade.

The Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is approaching a July 1 deadline for the countries to rubber-stamp an extension, but McKay noted the agreement will remain in place until at least 2036 regardless.

McKay says trade negotiations aren’t out of the ordinary as economies evolve, and that he’s confident the countries will come to an agreement over time, even though it’s a protracted process.

However, an unresolved CUSMA negotiation is muting businesses’ appetite for spending in Canada compared with the U.S., which continues to be in risk-on mode, McKay said.

“We’re certainly seeing some demand coming out of (the) Canadian economy, but I would say it’s slowing,” he said.

Meanwhile, RBC is open to taking on more risk in the U.S. as that economy performs well and supports a larger part of the bank’s balance sheet, he said. 

There’s higher demand for investments in the U.S. as AI startups and hyperscalers suck up all the capital in the markets.

“There’s also, on the other side, a fear of: Will there be enough capital for all demand out there?” he said. “It’s driving a huge amount of not only bank-to-bank debt  … but also high yield issuance and equity issuance.”

Aside from dominating the markets, AI has also enthralled the RBC CEO’s personal life.

“I get lost in it a little bit,” he said of a suite of agentic CEO office tools custom-made for him. 

“I would spend at least an hour on it in the morning.” 

McKay said the agentic models keep him updated on the goings-on within and outside the bank. A range of those agentic models synthesize information on the macro economy, global economy, banks’ forecasts, foreign exchange and even markets and consumer behaviour.

“I can get a feel for how the consumer is behaving and I can link that back into what the economy’s doing,” he said. 

“It gives me this unique view on understanding external and internal at the same time.”

RBC hasn’t disclosed how much it has invested in its AI capabilities, but it spends more than $5 billion a year on technology, according to a piece from American Banker from March that was reposted by RBC. The bank is expecting AI investments to generate between $700 million and $1 billion in revenue and cost savings by next year. 

McKay said AI at RBC will enable employees to serve more customers efficiently as the back-office work gets simplified and offer expansion capabilities.

“We’ll be more efficient, we’ll maybe need less people, but a lot of that’s coming through attrition and through demographic change,” he said. “We need that in our society. We need these tools.”