Gold still a safe haven in a crazy world

Amid continued tariff tantrums, commodity prices struggled in August — but ongoing trade turmoil and geopolitical risk are boosting the prospects for gold, says Desjardins Group.

In a new report, the firm said gold prices, already up 34.5% over the past year, should finish the year slightly higher from current levels at around US$3,400 per ounce, supported by “ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.”

It also forecast prices will climb further in the year ahead.

“With interest rate cuts set to resume this fall and inflation expected to remain above the 2% target in the United States, gold should hover near the US$3,500 mark in 2026,” the report said.

“Prices are also being supported by growing central bank gold reserves — part of a global move away from the dollar that shows no signs of letting up,” it added.

As for energy prices, the risk is to the downside.

“Prices are being propped up by strong refinery demand, especially in Asia, but this could change as OPEC+ boosts production over the coming months,” the report said.

If production rises as planned, “supply could outstrip demand by nearly four million barrels per day in Q1 2026, possibly triggering a sharp price correction,” it noted.

In base metals, hefty tariffs on aluminum and steel products are expected to weigh on demand.

“Despite these developments, we’re maintaining our year-end price targets for industrial metals, as the global economy has proven more resilient to the trade war than initially anticipated,” the report said.

James Langton

James is a senior reporter for Advisor.ca and its sister publication, Investment Executive. He has been reporting on regulation, securities law, industry news and more since 1994.