Portfolio manager bullish on oil even with eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz

A senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners is expecting an US$80 floor price for oil even after the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Eric Nuttall says in his firm’s mid-year outlook report that global inventories will have to be restocked after nearly four months of fighting in the Middle East, creating sustained demand for crude.

The strait, a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply normally transits by tanker, has been effectively cut off since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February.

A leaked interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran says Iran will take steps to immediately reopen the vital shipping route and it will be able to sell its oil without restrictions.

West Texas Intermediate crude was hovering around the US$77 per barrel mark today, about US$10 above where it was before the war started but US$37 below its wartime high in April.

Nuttall says in the report that one of the biggest misperceptions in the market is that oil and gas equities have already reflected the rally in energy prices.

“While the stocks have appreciated in price, our valuation suggests that stocks are discounting closer to US$65 WTI, below our view of the floor price for oil,” he wrote.

“At US$80 WTI, the companies will generate significant free cash flow, most of which will be returned to investors in the form of share buybacks and dividends.”

— With files from The Associated Press

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press

Lauren Krugel is a reporter with The Canadian Press, a national news agency headquartered in Toronto and founded in 1917.