BoC to resume economic forecasting with rate decision this month

Governor Tiff Macklem says the Bank of Canada will have to be “humble” in its return to formal economic forecasting as trade uncertainty continues to swirl.

The Bank of Canada intends to publish a forecast for the economy at its upcoming interest rate decision on Oct. 29 — something the central bank hasn’t done since the start of this year as U.S. tariffs clouded the economic horizon.

Macklem is in Washington, D.C., this week for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings with the heads of other central banks and financial policy-makers.

He told reporters on a call from the sidelines of the meetings that uncertainty around the U.S. tariff campaign has decreased since the spring but threats to global trade persist.

While the Bank of Canada now feels comfortable enough to issue formal forecasts, Macklem said those projections will put a lot of weight on the risks.

He said businesses are telling the central bank in surveys that the ongoing uncertainty is holding them back from investments and hiring, but the artificial intelligence boom has been a “countervailing force” to boost investment in the face of uncertainty.